Keir Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Halt Andy Burnham' Campaign to Block Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry
Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly started a coordinated campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to parliament. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.
Major Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process
Several figures on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have apparently suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is largely due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are desperate to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The party apparatus is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially stand for the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
A number of sources also expressed fears about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The constituency in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to launch a significant challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.
