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Just 48 hours remaining.

The English side's first Test in Australia gets under way on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It’s challenging to make runs, right?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are bothering to show up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent difficulty of scoring runs, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

Regarding batting in Australia, especially against fast bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to score runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from English cricket paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have toured Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and durability of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average below 17.

In addition to Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have performed well.

Michael Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home match without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have won by a combined 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, outcomes have not been affected – England should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Remember when England could not find an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners faster than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a factor in Zak Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

Crawley, who memorably hit the first ball of the previous Ashes for four, has also been identified as having the technique for Australia.

His average rises when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 matches.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, most likely back at three.

Across seven matches in 2025, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, spinners have averaged almost 44 in Australia, though Lyon's record holds up well compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

Traditionally, the series began in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have played at 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the tour are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

Perth stages an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the tourists approach with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the venue for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

Australia have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new ground has been won by the team setting a target.

The English often complicate day-night matches, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

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